Tiger93

I don't think even the coach would use stats from this game as ammunition. I just appreciate all of the expanded tools to look at the game in different ways these days. Some care about this stuff, and I know some don't.

That is why you have to ask him to lean into the two things he does well and let others figure out the offense. You could tell from watching last night that Charles was asked to refrain from shooting unless it was a clear chance. He turned down several driving opportunities that he has taken in the past, which is what he has been struggling with this year. He actually did a good job passing last night at times, and if there was a stat for passes that led to open shots that did not go in he had about 4-5 of those. Of course, that doesn't do much for anything if the shots don't go in when they are taken. Towards the end of the game, I think he got frustrated and took some of those drives he shouldn't be doing and had a couple of shots blocked. At this point, his role should mostly should be Rodman-esque and there is nothing wrong with that because that is what he does well and it helps the team if anyone else can bring the offense (much easier said then done). His passing is hit or miss, and I don't really want him take a shot unless he is going to the basket and it is a clear chance. I still think he played the best game of anyone in a Tigers uniform last night by a pretty large margin, but that isn't saying much. I also thought Dylan did a decent job, he just couldn't buy a basket.

I know +/- can be an arbitrary stat in basketball, but I always like to look at it after games to see if it confirms what I am watching (admittedly there is a confirmation bias conversation lurking in there). Williamson was +10 and Thompson was at +2. That makes sense to me because those were the only two players who seemed to be offering any positive contributions (other than the Christian May offensive spark that briefly gave us 38-35 lead), even though Williamson's shot was off. I know people ripped Thompson, and I agree that I don't love that we run the offense through him. However, he gave us what we needed on the boards and defensively and frankly I think he should have played 4-5 minutes more than he did. Yes, he had a bad turnover spree at the beginning of the second half, and he had a couple of bad shots down the stretch, but this is for the most part how we need him to play. Who can blame him for taking a couple of the bad shots when no one else was making anything. He probably could have had five assists if anyone was capable of knocking down an open shot last night. One thing that bothers me in modern day college basketball is the over-reliance on the three-pointer even when shots aren't falling. We were 6-28. Twenty-eight of our 60 shots were three-point attempts (granted we were also 10-32 from 2pt-FG). In comparison, Monmouth who couldn't hit water if they fell out of boat from three only took threes on 15 of their 58 FG attempts (they were 18-43 from inside the arc). They outscored us 17 to 8 in points off turnovers despite the fact that we only had one more turnover, and also outscored us 30-16 in the paint. We have to figure out how to get some easy points rather than hoisting up threes and hoping we have a good night. Monmouth shot 16 FT to our 8 FT, and matched our 13 offensive rebounds. We also turned the ball over 14 times in 65 possession (21.5%) and shot 26.7% (16-60). I will beat a dead horse and say if we are going to have the least amount possessions of any team in the nation, turn it over 20% of the time and shoot poorly that really limits our chances of winning (I know I am understating this fact). Add to the fact, that we got matched or outplayed in the physical trademarks of Skerry teams (offensive rebounds and free throws), and you run out of ways to win a game no matter how good the defense plays. Xander Rice was the only player who did anything offensively when it mattered in this game (May was on his way to doing this when we gave us the lead 38-35, but wasn't able to sustain it), and Jack Collins was everywhere and negated any of the good defensive and rebounding that I thought Thompson provided us. Most of you probably either know this or don't care to dig into the stats that much, but after the games Statbroadcast posts expanded boxscores that have possessions, +/- and specialty stats. Sometimes it gives me a little more of a glimpse than a standard boxscore. Here is the link to last night's boxscore if anyone cares. https://www.statbroadcast.com/events/archived.php?id=485916

The way Thompson battles against Williams is the prime example of what makes him so important to this team. Even when he isn't scoring, his effort, rebounding and defense can set the tone. We need him to lock into those areas and let others take care of scoring. He sometimes gets in trouble knowing he is a leader and fifth-year senior, and tries to do too much.

Charles is still a great rebounder and solid defender. I honestly think the offense he put up at the end of the 2021-22 season was a byproduct of getting easier opportunities because of what Timberlake, Nolan Jr. and Holden were creating on that end of the floor. That offense was doing a great job of spacing things out, and it made things easier for everyone. I feel like the 1993-94 team and that year are the only times I can remember offense coming that easy to a Towson team, and Thompson benefitted hugely from it. I still think on days where Tejada or May heat up from outside he might have some better chances down low, but we just don't have three really solid scoring options ahead of him like we did in 2021-22. I think Thompson will do fine tonight, but my expectations have leveled off for him. He has not gotten better the last two years, but he is still the heart and soul of this team. When he stays out of foul trouble to get in a decent rhythm, limits turnovers, takes what comes to him on offense, and locks in on defense we are still much better for it. He has been through the battles, and I do think he can help set the tone for us to continue to be good in this conference. I just don't like when we rely on him as any sort of an offensive option.

Oddly enough I give us an equal shot to win both games this week based on what we have done to this point. I know UNC-Wilmington has been the best team in the conference in non-conference play, but if we show up like we did against UMass we can win that game. As we already talked about the road is a complete crapshoot right now, because outside of a decent portion of the Wake Forest game (and small parts of the Houston game) we haven't have played well on the road out of the state. You could tell me we are 0-2, 1-1 or 2-0 after this week and I would not be shocked with either result. I will be surprised if we can beat teams like Delaware, Drexel, UNC-W, Charleston and Hofstra on the road, but I do think we are capable of winning those matchups at home (I know we got the short end of the scheduling in this respect). I think what we are in this conference this year will be determined on whether we can be a good, serviceable or awful road team, and I have no idea what category to put is in at this point. I do find it interesting that the tonight's spread has gone from -1.5 to -3 or -3.5 is some of the places I look.

If you can beat them join, uh wait a second we did beat them last year.

The eye test at times can tell you we are athletic and tough on defense, but the numbers definitely suggest otherwise so far. I think we can be really tough defensively in conference play, but we have to get better. The switching defense we use also yields mixed results. It can overwhelm teams at times because of our intensity and athleticism, but in the second half of last year's road game at Hofstra they absolutely picked it apart and found an open man on virtually every possession. I felt like last year Skerry adjusted a little at the end of games when teams were gashing us off the switching defense last year, but he will need to be more proactive this year because an 8-to-10 point deficit will likely feel tougher to claw back from than it has the last two years.

I also agree the Monmouth game will be an interesting

I agree with a lot of what you have said. I think we will finish somewhere in that 5th to 9th range in conference play. This team is capable of exerting its physical will on opponents and can play some excellent defense, but the offensive limitations are glaring unless May or Tejada carry a big offensive load on a given night. I think we will beat some of the top teams at home, but this team doesn't seem to have a great mix of attributes to win on the road against quality opposition. I hope that changes, but those things are hard to turn around in the middle of a season. We still have the slowest temp in the nation according to KenPom, and our adjusted offense and defensive efficiency are both in the 180s. It feels like a better defensive team than the stats say we are right now. I think this can be improved, and it obviously is a big part of our program identity. I won't hold my breath on the offense. Having the 293rd best field goal percentage (41.8%) won't cut it, nor will being 341st in free throw shooting (62.5, we only have 20 more made FT than our opponents despite shooting 62 more FTs) and 276th in three-point percentage (31%). We are really back to being a full-fledged Skerry team (which I think Holden got us out of a little with his weird skillset) that tries to just exert our physical will on teams to win. We are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the nation (16.54 rpg). The fact that we are only 223rd in field goal defense needs to get better and I think it will. This stats can be sliced and diced many ways based on competition level, but they provide a good baseline and show our glaring weaknesses. I know I am one that gets bashed on here for accepting mediocrity at times. During the Skerry era, I have actually been optimistic going into conference play in most years. That hadn't really been the case since Truax was our coach. Our style of basketball is not my favorite to watch, and I do agree with the many on here that say our postseason track record is just not acceptable. I would also say that if you take away a couple of years, we haven't been great in non-conference play either (which is what made 2021-22 so fun). However, I do actually think there is a lot of talent on this team. We just need to do better defensively, and figure out how to piece together enough offense on nights we play good teams (which will be very hard). Also minor correction, we did win road games at UMBC and Coppin State. So really what you meant to say is we have not won a road game outside of the State of Maryland, and that point is valid. I just wanted to make sure you did give us credit for our road wins. Also, in this team's defense they have only played four true road games (the fact that our game against South Dakota State is consider neutral site is silly). The way I look at all of this is I think many of you have points about Skerry. However, once the season begins I prefer to focus on what is going on in that given season and not the collective under Skerry. he has moved the ball forward little by little and made things more interesting, but the fact this program has never made it to a conference tournament final since I arrived on-campus in 1993 becomes more absurd by the year and I certainly don't mind holding people accountable for that.

Sorry for the multiple posts

That was well done, although (old man grip alert) I fear this is how 95% of anyone under the age of 21 watches a game these days. That was the first time I saw the video of the foul call on the three-point, and it looked like a BS call from that angle (which was a decent shot of the play). I can't complain too much because we shot ourselves in the foot about 50 times to lose that game. For that matter, so did Bryant.

I mean there is no getting around that the conference is the conference with all of the teams and ugly warts, but I do feel like measuring the top eight teams in each conference can tell you something about the quality depth a conference can have. I do think Monmouth and Stony Brook will prove to be good hoops additionsl (of course we lose Delaware). Honestly, it is more about the lack of depth most mid-majors have than the amazing depth that the CAA has. However, Delaware, Hofstra, UNC-Wilmington, Charleston, Drexel, Monmouth, Northeastern, Towson are a decently solid top eight. I only walked through this exercise to take a look at where things sit as we get ready for conference play. None of this really matters, because our ranking is so low all we have left is phase 2 (conference play) and phase 3 (conference tournament) to focus on as we move forward. It is still just something I find interesting to break down. Just thought I would share.

I did a quick thought exercise yesterday because the conference actually seems pretty solid and has had some good wins this year. That conference NET ranking of 21 seemed low until you factor in all of the crap at the bottom. I know has a cherry-picking for a good narrative aspect to it since the bottom part of it is complete garbage, especially Hampton and NC A&T (I probably just assured we will lose to one of these teams with that comment). I took the average NET ranking of the top eight teams for each conference (full disclosure, we are eighth in the CAA) and ranked the conferences. When I did this exercise, the CAA was actually 13th out of all the conferences mostly due to the fact that 5-8 is pretty strong compared to most other conferences from a NET perspective. The CAA was the biggest jump from the overall from 21 to 13. If anyone is interested here is how the rankings shaped up (as of Dec. 14), the average NET ranking of the top eight teams in parenthesis, and what the real rankings are when you include all of the teams. I only ran this through twice, so I may have missed a conference on this list. 1. Big 12 (15.7) - ranked 1 in overall conference rankings 2. SEC (26.8) - 3 3. ACC (37.6) - 5 4. Big East (39.8) - 4 5. Big Ten (44.8) - 2 6. Pac 12 (50.2) - 6 7. Mountain West (66.5) - 7 8. Atlantic 10 (74.3) - 8 9. AAC (87.6) - 10 10. Missouri Valley (92.3) - 9 11. WAC (138.6) - 13 12. WCC (140.6) - 12 13. CAA (142.5) - 21 14. Ivy League (153.1) - 11 15. MAC (160.8) - 19 16. Sun Belt (165.3) - 22 17. Horizon (168.2) - 23 18. Big West (171.6) - 16 19. So Con (172) - 14 20. Conference USA (185.2) - 15 21. America East (192.5) 17 22. Big South (196.2) - 20 23. Summit League (197.1) - 18 24. Big Sky (201) - 24 25. MAAC (217.6) - 25 26. A-Sun (229.8) - 26 27. Southland (246.6) - 27 28. OVC (247.8) - 28 29. SWAC (264.6) - 31 30. Patriot (274.7) - 29 31. MEAC (291.1) - 30 32. NEC (300.1) - 32

Looks like Towson is favored by two points in this one. I actually feel like we are slightly undervalued (I would have said -4, but I am admittedly only pretending to know anything), which may seem crazy. Of course, we have done nothing outside of the state of Maryland (our one good road performance was at UMBC) to warrant being a favorite. When you look at our list of games it feels like we have been overvalued for most of the year, but it also looks like Bryant has been too. I do find it odd that they crush Florida Atlantic, but lose by 16 to Boston University and 11 to Stony Brook.

Interesting mid-major day of teams at similar levels at UBS Arena with Towson-Bryant, Delaware-Rhode Island and St. Joseph's vs. Iona. I went to a similar version of this event in Chicago last year when it was Towson-Northern Iowa, Tulane-George Mason, Dayton-Wyoming and Vanderbilt-NC State. These are good days for college hoops junkies, although with a long drive back to Minneapolis and a bad taste from the Towson game in my mouth I only stayed for part of George Mason-Tulane. Hopefully tomorrow goes better against Bryant than last year. I do like these neutral-site opportunities against what are supposed to be solid mid-major teams (Northern Iowa and Bryant have let us down the past two years, and we have let them down too after having an amazing NET in 2021-22). This is also a good opportunity to see Delaware live before we get into conference play, not that we don't both already know each other inside out. Although, with the transfer portal it is hard to know a lot about teams from year to year.

Well, they beat Florida Atlantic and lost to Stony Brook so clearly we can't take anything for granted when it comes to which version of Bryant will show up. Most importantly, we need build off our recent play at home. This is a good game to establish some consistency on the road. I know it is a neutral-site game, but for the most part our play away from home has been very subpar. In the first five games away from SECU we averaged 52.8 ppg, shooting 33.4% and 23.9% from three, and have 63 turnovers. The 12.6 turnovers per game wouldn't have been that bad, except when you take into account that we averaging slightly over 60 possessions a game. We have definitely regained our footing the last two games. In the UMBC game, we shot 35-67 (52.2%) and 11-26 (42.3%) from three. A game at UMBC down the road is a little bit difference than away sites we are we have to take a couple of days to go there and back, but it is something to build from. The last three halfs we have shot 50-94 (53.1%). Clearly the styles, pace and lack of defense of UMBC and UMass (75th in tempo) played into our hands, but Bryant also plays at a very fast tempo (24th in the nation in possessions) and 306th in offensive efficiency (UMBC was 240th).

Scheduling is fine, we just don't ever beat any of the top teams we schedule. That is an issue that frustrates all of us. Would be nice to get a 2 or 3-1 to bring a top team to SECU where we play better, but I don't think those opportunities are all that plentiful. If we beat Wake Forest (which was very possible) and South Dakota State (which wasn't very close to happening) we would have been a good shape. No problem playing the locals, although I wish we only played one of the two out of Morgan State and Coppin State. We should play Loyola (I know there are issues) or Navy, and UMBC every year. Obviously, it would also be nice to play the Terps every year, but they don't want to do that for a number of valid reasons. We have plenty of opportunities to play good teams. This year's schedule playing Colorado, the Charleston Tournament, South Dakota State and Bryant is more than enough quality, although those two mid-major teams aren't very high in RPI or NET this year. I like the equation of playing a top 50 NET team (Colorado this year), mixed with a tournament (Charleston), one or two shots at playing other good mid-majors (SDSU & Bryant), and 2-3 local teams. It is difficult to enhance the schedule much more. Obviously, we all hate the stupid waste of time that is the Acadia game.

Yep, misread last year's stats. Happens from time to time.

I am excited to test my confirmation bias when it comes to my portal scouting ability (I am mostly kidding). For a good part of the offseason Marko Maletic, Jordan Riley and Nendah Tarke were my favorite targets. Riley ended up not being that realistic when he landed at Temple, but I felt like we were close to being next team up if he didn't end up there. Maletic really wasn't our type of player, but he can score and is doing so at Toledo. Tarke seems like a good fit with our system, and I look forward to seeing what he can do when he starts getting on the court regularly. That waiver transfer process that is going on at the NCAA this year reminds me of the process of waiting in line at the DMV. You know is going to take three times as long as you like, there is no tangible evidence progress is being made, and you have no idea what result you are going to get when you are at the front of the line.

Just in time for a grudge match against the team we grabbed him from in Nicholls on December 22. Funny that we will have two of these with Sulaiman facing Bryant on December 16, who he originally committed to out of the portal. I guess all is fair in the Wild West-like environment of the transfer portal. It will be good to get Tarke in this lineup and have a couple of games to sort things out before conference play starts. If we are near being the team we want to be, we should grab wins in each of the final four non-conference contests (Acadia doesn't really count). Bryant seems like the toughest of the group having won five of their last six. With the up and down nature of our offense nothing can be assumed, so let's build off this UMass win with a good effort at UMBC.

I know people will roll their eyes at this, but this is a good game to get a sense of where we really are right now as a team. Our losses have been to two really good teams (Houston and Colorado), one very solid one (North Texas, by far our worst effort), and one major conference team (Wake Forest) that we could have beaten if our offense was a tick better that day (I am not trying to claim a moral victory, just putting forth a realistic assessment of the game). South Dakota State is also a better team than us. I am not sure I would say they are really good, but even if we played well that would have been a tough game to win (and we didn't play well). Our wins have been against the dregs, as Robert Morris, Coppin State and Morgan State are holding down 300+ NET rankings. So, we really didn't discover much from those games. With the UMass matchup, we get to play a very solid team in the comforts of SECU, who probably wants to deal out some revenge for last year. I would imagine UMass would be favored by somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-8 points. I think the effort level (which was questionable at times during this same stretch last year) has been good so far this year. However, the execution needs to get much better. I think we will get a focused and solid effort on Wednesday. What that yields, I have no idea. Which is why I am interested in this game.

I am not sure the offense can be worse. I went to the SDSU game, and it felt like a football team with a really good defense, who eventually gives up points because it is exhausted from trying to make up for the offense. Obviously, the big difference is the same people are playing offense and defense. I expect the offense get a little better because it can't get much worse, and there are lot of young guys making inexperienced mistakes (of course there are many being made by experience players too). However, it needs to get a way better for us to even be a decent team in conference play.

Bottom is very weak. The top is actually pretty solid. Monmouth looks like they are heading in the right direction to supplement the UNC-W, Hofstra, College of Charleston, Drexel group. Delaware also looks solid. Even Northeastern looks decent. I don't know where that leaves us, but we have a lot of work to do before conference play starts. Talent is there from an athletic standpoint as is the defensive effort, but the offense is unwatchable so far. I know we played some tough teams, but if we are going to have the least amount of offensive possession per game in the nation (362nd per KenPom), we can't also shoot 38% from the field (28.9% three-point land), turn the ball over 13 (13.3) times a game (I believe that means we are turning it over on nearly 22% of our possessions), and only make 10 more free throws than our opponents this is going to be a rough season. The rebounding has been good mostly, and is our calling card, but we need a lot more than that.

You beat me to it. On the good end of things, the CAA is one of only six non-Power Conference leagues to have two or more teams ranked in the top 100 (Sun Belt 2, SoCon 2, Missouri Valley 7, Ivy 3, Conference USA 2, CAA 2). UNC-Wilmington and Drexel should only be helped by their wins this weekend against Kentucky and Villanova respectively. On the bad end, the CAA joins seven conferences with seven or more teams sitting at 250 or worse (SWAC 9, Patriot 8, NEC 8, CAA 7, OVC 7, Southland 7, Sun Belt 7). As was stated above, we are one of those teams and that is unacceptable. Our losses have come against some pretty solid teams (Colorado 54, Wake 133, Houston 1, North Texas 104, South Dakota State 164). Our wins have been against some very lowly ranked teams (Robert Morris 302, Coppin State 358, Morgan State 356) Our remaining non-conference looks like this: UMass 94, UMBC 309, Bryant 156 (even after beating FAU), Nicholls 199) Overall, our conference has rankings of Hofstra 67, Delaware 98, UNC-W 120, Drexel 123, College of Charleston 132, Monmouth 145, Northeastern 177, Elon 255, Towson 281, William & Mary 297, Campbell 315, Stony Brook 320, Hampton 334, NC A&T 355. At some point in January, I will do average conference ranking for my own amusement.