GW Preview

[mat1992 2,233]

Before the game notes are out, let's start with an article about the Colonials. They do have a rising young star as the head coach.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/11/03/coach-jamion-christian-aims-stabilize-gw-basketball-with-his-mayhem-defense/

[mat1992 2,233]

 

[tualum 108]

Get ready for some Skerry ball baby!!!

[Blazer49 184]

Towson -6 ?  I don't know about that.  Respect to us or lack of respect to GW?  

[sr16 158]

https://gwhoops.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?id=174 - someone on their board posted a really good in depth piece about us

[sr16 158]

2 minutes ago, sr16 said:

https://gwhoops.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?id=174 - someone on their board posted a really good in depth piece about us

Comments:
I'm assuming we agreed to a home-and-home with the Tigers last season itself, otherwise I'm not sure this is an ideal first game to start the season. The tweet below sums up my reaction:

Anthony Giordano @GoSBU93 Oct 30 
Replying to @A10Talk
Why the hell is GW opening AT Towson?

Unlike last year where McNeil was the only returning player of significance, Towson brings back virtually everyone on their team (29th nationally in minutes continuity), and while McNeil was a rotation player, he might have been the worst shooter they had so it might help them that his eligibility has expired. 

We also have the extra challenge of trying to beat them at their place. It has been 10 years since we last began a season on the road (2009-10, when we defeated another CAA team, UNC Wilmington, 76-71 behind Aaron Ware's 16 point effort, maybe the second best victory against the Seahawks). 

Anyways, back to the Tigers. In what has been coined "Skerry Ball" (it only makes sense we are facing them not even a week after Halloween), the Tigers look for shots closer to the hoop, using their bruising frontline to clean up the glass and generate second chance opportunities off any misses. The Tigers ranked 37th in the country in offensive rebounds per game and 32nd in rebound margin, while finishing 340th last year in three point attempts, and 333rd in three point field goals per game, four categories which reflect these traits. Offensively, the Tigers were guilty of taking inefficient midrange jumpers like us last year, and the lack of ball movement resulted in them being one of the worst teams in assists per game (347th nationally). Defensively, their perimeter shell was softer than they usually are, finishing 319th in steals per game and 345th in turnovers forced. While their interior rim protection was fairly good as always, teams were never taken out of their comfort zone operating in the halfcourt with the mediocre defense along the perimeter. 

Towson will be led by a senior-laden backcourt of Tobias 'T.J.' Howard and Brian Fobbs, both who previously spent time at the JUCO level. If you squint enough, you can definitely see Fobbs as a poor man's James Harden. Although the refs did not blow the whistle every time he drove to the rim like they do for Harden (Fobbs averaged just over three free throws a game) he converted them at a good rate, and shares the same height as JH, with both players standing at 6'5". The lefty from upstate NY can also stroke it from deep. This is important because Towson, as mentioned previously, is not a team that aims to beat you from deep (the Fobbs and Howard pairing accounted for 62% of Towson's total 3PA). For a Towson team that couldn't get much going offensively, Fobbs was a bright light. Howard, a former Western Kentucky Hilltopper, is no slouch from deep either, but faces competition from younger guys like Jakigh Dottin and Jason Gibson, two guys Skerry has been high on this offseason. Nick Timberlake is a SG worth mentioning who will provide the Tigers some much needed shooting. Limited to just 9 games last year before going down with a foot injury, Timberlake came off the bench and scored 10 points (4-5 FG, 2-3 3-pt) in 24 minutes during last year's contest.

In the frontcourt, Towson will be led by two more seniors, Nakye Sanders and Dennis Tunstall. Sanders (a guy we have faced a ton of times now after he started his career at Duquesne) has the more offensive upside of the two, but both guys possess strong rebounding and shot blocking abilities, two traits that you'd expect of a Tigers team. Solomon Uyaelunmo, a former 3-star prospect out of high school, likely continues to see his minutes capped as a backup playing behind both Sanders and Tunstall, but he too has the potential to be a monster rebounder. Skerry also had glowing remarks for freshman Charles Thompson, which leads me to believe he too will see minutes as a backup in year one.

Solomon's brother, Victor Uyaelunmo, also joined the team this offseason but will sit out a year. The former 4-star prospect is one of three players who decided to return to the east coast after stints out west. While Victor (USC) and Demetrius Mims (Long Beach State) will be sitting out the year, Juwan Gray (San Diego) is eligible this year as a wing that can pull up from deep or beat this man getting to the hoop while having the length and athleticism to be a pest in Skerry's defensive scheme. Gray may be the x-factor on this year's Towson team and someone to watch out for in Tuesday's tilt.

While it does appear the Tigers have the personnel to play faster this year, Skerry has never had a track record of ever playing at a fast pace in his Towson tenure. It will be interesting to see JC's schemes go against Skerry, as GW and Towson could not be more different in identity. Whichever team is able to enforce their style of play will likely come out on top. This is a game where I'd expect to see a lot of minutes for Arnaldo, Javier, Ace, and Chase if he's healthy. While many teams in the CAA saw their best players graduate, Towson is one of the few teams that has a ton of continuity which should work in their favor. This will be a tough test, especially to begin the year. I have a feeling we may come up a bit short, but would love to be wrong.

Predicted Score: Towson 73, GW 68. 29% chance to win (Bart Torvik). ESPN says we have a 41.1% chance to win which sounds about right. The line has Towson 6.5 point favorites which sounds a tad high.

[sr16 158]

59 minutes ago, Blazer49 said:

Towson -6 ?  I don't know about that.  Respect to us or lack of respect to GW?  

 

Sounds like respect for us

[TuTigers2012 1,062]

1 hour ago, Blazer49 said:

Towson -6 ?  I don't know about that.  Respect to us or lack of respect to GW?  

First game college lines can be crazy.  This is a good game to start off with.

[TuTigers2012 1,062]

23 minutes ago, sr16 said:

Why the hell is GW opening AT Towson?

Unlike last year where McNeil was the only returning player of significance, Towson brings back virtually everyone on their team (29th nationally in minutes continuity), and while McNeil was a rotation player, he might have been the worst shooter they had so it might help them that his eligibility has expired. 

LOL Both of those made me laugh.

[Chris Datres 423]

4 hours ago, TuTigers2012 said:

First game college lines can be crazy.  This is a good game to start off with.

Stay away.  Stay farrrrrr away.  Gotta give it a couple of games to really get the feel of anyone.  However, 2nd half plays aren't necessarily a bad idea if you've been able to watch the first half and can make an impression of what you've seen versus what the line is.