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mat1992

Did this recruiting class solve all issues?

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Last season, we struggled in many facets.

1)FT shooting, esp. in the clutch. Avg. 68.7. Good for eighth in the league.

2)Three-point attempts. We made just 6.6 per game, while our opponents made 7.4. Our percentage (36.6% 3pt) wasn't bad. Just needed more attempts.

3)Passing was dreadful at times. Avg. just 11.8 assists per game, while opponents averaged 13.0. 

4)Forced turnovers. Forced 13.3 per game, while turning the ball over 12.7 per game. 

5)Rebounding margin wasn't bad at +5.6 per game but not as dominant as in year's past. Last year, the margin was +8.1 and we did win 20 games and went 11-7 in the CAA.

6)Players playing out of position.

Conference stats:

1)Defense was terrible in the CAA. They allowed 75.6 points per game while averaging 77.7 points per game. Field goal percentage allowed was at 46.4% (overall was 42.9%).

2)Three-point defense was atrocious at 37.2% in the CAA and 33.7% overall.

3)Did lead the league in rebounding margin, blocks and steals. 

4)Last in the CAA (conference play only) in assist to turnover ratio at 0.9.

So did we improve or regress on paper? It's difficult to translate HS stats to D1 college, so who knows who the freshmen will do but Fobbs was a very good shooter at the line and from the field. T.J. Howard shot 80% from the line, 39% from 3 and 41% overall. Jordan McNeill was at 40%, 44.4% overall and just 61% from the line (14-23). Now if you throw Tunstall in the lineup, he's kind of a disaster on offense (46% FT) and doesn't show much aside from dunks and layups (72.2% FG). Then Sanders was around 47% FT at Duquesne, though he did work on FTs and overall shooting in his sit-out year. We'll see how much he improves.

Potentially, the biggest improvement is on the defensive end, where ZM and JG both struggled. But once again, not sure if will be better. They could go with experience early in the backcourt adding Howard, Fobbs, and McNeill instead of going with a freshman. McNeill is at least solid defensively though tough to tell about Fobbs and Howard, though both are capable. Fobbs has the length and Howard has the strength. Sanders should be a big-time rebounder and defender. 

Newer doesn't necessarily mean worse or better. We'll just have a different look. A more skilled look, possibly with Fobbs, Timberlake, Solomon (can shoot) and Yagi (post play). Post defense last year was non-existent when Al Thomas was off the floor. Now you have Sanders (6-8, 245), Solomon O. (6-8, 220ish) and Yagi (6-8, 235). Ultimately, we missed Moto (6-6, 245) more than we thought we would along with JD (6-5, 230). 

Another big issue? Playing Eddie Keith at power forward and McNeill at point guard. It just didn't work out for either. EK played 25mpg and averaged just 4.9 rebounds while shooting 28% from 3pt. Post defense was an issue with him and with Gorham, who had to play center at 6-7, 230. So ultimately, you had a 3-man playing the 4 and a combo forward playing center. Not really by design because there were no other options. And we don't even need to get into stats on McNeill at point guard. If you watched him for those 5-10 minutes per game, it was just rough. 

 

 

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On paper have we regressed or improved? I think we’ve improved, but check back with me in March, 2019. 

First, I’m cautiously optimistic Howard & Dottin will be better at PG than Starr & McNeill. Frankly, that’s not a terribly high bar to clear, but Howard was heavily recruited out of HS & JUCO & Dottin is a winner (I believe he was the PG on a multiple championship team in HS in Boston)

Rebounding last year was by committee. Did we have any one player who averaged 7 boards a game? This coming season Sanders has 7-8 rpg potential. Throw in Tunstall, Solomon, Selcuk & Thomas (notice I list Thomas last) & I think rebounding could be improved.

Defense was awful at times last season. I assume Skerry will make rebounding & D top priorities next season and the new young players will buy in

Shooting-we’ve lost the 3 best shooters (ZM, Gorham & Morsell) from last year. Can Fobbs, Timberlake, Howard & some of the other newcomers pick up the slack? Until they face live ammo we won’t know.

Foul shooting-as prolific a scorer ZM was at times, he wasn’t a great foul shooter. I think we’ll be better, with the caveat that Sanders has to improve over his numbers at Duquesne 

The key question in my mind is can next years team gel as a cohesive unit, where guys get along, & play as a team. I think last year’s team was divided, fractured & dysfunctional. One of my concerns is that we don’t appear to have a prototypical 6’6-6’7 wing/small forward. We have a ton of guys around 6’4 or so (Drayton, McNeill, Fobbs, Betrand & Timberlake). I guess we could go with a 3 guard lineup, seeing as we have, at least on paper, a good group of bigs. 

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Just trying to get some talk going in the offseason and appreciate the conversation. I don't think I've ever been more excited about seeing practices in preseason or in the summer. Until I see them live, I have no clue how good this team is but I can speculate that we will be better on defense and at the line based on addition by subtraction. However, Sanders has to be better from the line than he was at Duquesne because he will be a focal point on the offensive end.  Because let's face it, we have no proven scorers.

But I think we'll find out in practice which guys are ready to go. Hopefully we don't have to rely on just one or two guys. If you start Al Thomas, you are playing four on five on offense. Same with Tunstall though I think he can score 6-8 ppg if he's given 25mpg at the 4, where he can just elevate and use his length over shorter players. Last year, were often playing 3 on 5 when Starr was cold and it really was 2 on 5 because the defense didn't respect EK's jumper. Yet, we found a way to put points on the board because the bench was pretty good until Morman's departure and Ingram leaving.

I'll guarantee one thing: if Timberlake starts, we'll have a better passing team because he can handle the rock and play some point. Howard can play some off the ball. I think we will struggle early on as we attempt to gel, but I think we'll be fun to watch.

Also like the Gray move for next year though he would have been nice for this season based on his experience and talent.

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Given the influx of new players, & the subtraction of so many others, I think I’m more intrigued by this coming season than any others recently. With 6 freshman, Skerry would seem to have no option but to play some of them more than he has played freshman in the past. I’m guessing that 1 of them, Timberlake, even could be in the mix to be a starter. Can’t wait to see if Fobbs can be a consistent 3 point shooter & also am hoping Solomon comes in & forces Skerry to play him significant minutes. Also, curious to see what Betrand brings to the table. 

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Agree, should be fun but I'd rather see the unknown than the known. In other words, I don't think we're going far if we're playing Thomas, McNeill and Tunstall all at least 20mpg. You kind of know what you're going to get from all three but the other nine are mysteries until they start playing legit games. Or at least ex. games and scrimmages against other D1 opponents.

I do think Pat has shown he's willing to go for more skill up front and in the backcourt. No offense to guys like T.J., Dennis, Foster, Al Thomas, etc, but we have not had a freshman big man that teams have to prepare for. Sure, transfers like Moto, JB and possibly Sanders are legit. Maybe JD but he was unique and barely 6-5. Hoping that Solomon becomes that guy who has the size and skill, maybe even Yagi, but they have a better skillset than most of the bigs we've brought in. Was hoping that J.J. Mathews would be the guy, but he wasn't as injuries just never really healed.

What we need from Fobbs or Howard is that ability to close or get the ball to the right guys in crunch time. Just finish. That is the most difficult player to cultivate. JB was the closest guy to that but we need a Gary Neal. Somebody that can get you basket when the clock is winding down or get to the line and make his FTs. Gary is not on this squad, but hopefully we have a few guys that we can rely on down the stretch because we really haven't had that guy in years. Closest was Morsell but he couldn't really get his own shot, while Zane didn't have enough of a consistent handle to break people down.

 

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Agree about the returning trio-the only one I hope gets 15 minutes or so is Tunstall. He’s an asset on the press & he can block shots & grab some boards. I would be happy if he averaged 5-6 ppg. He’s limited offensively, but does get the occasional tip in or dunk. Would like to see him put on weight, but I’ve been saying that about him since he arrived.

If Thomas and/or McNeill are playing more than 10 minutes a game, that probably means we’re in deep doo

Speaking of bigs, I saw where JJ Matthews committed to Arkansas State, where he’ll have 3 years of eligibility. Somewhat ironic in that I believe Ark State is the school Ingram de-committed from before coming here (for 2 months)

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Good for J.J. Hope he does well.

I've always been a fan of Tunstall as y'all know. But as a redshirt junior, I don't expect him to put on a lot of weight. He did put about 15 pounds in his sit-out year and hasn't gained a lot since then. Maybe after off-season surgery, he'll be a little quicker, a little stronger. But you saw that lack of strength when he tried to defend bigs last season and couldn't. That's why we had to throw Gorham at center and he struggled. And we decided to press again (who knows?), he'd be much more impactful. Thankfully, we will have many more options this season in the post. 

I wonder if we go back to just using a zone press as we did two years ago or just press when we're down. Not sure we'll have the depth to press this season. My guess is the rotation will be:

PG Howard, Dottin

SG Timberlake, Betrand

SF Fobbs, McNeill

PF Tunstall, Solomon

C Sanders, Thomas

That's assuming we go 10 but with McNeill, they might just use him at the backup 2 and 3, hopefully not at one. There's no way he doesn't play at least 10-15mpg unless Drayton has improved immensely. Timberlake might be able to play some point guard though I'm guessing he's going to blend well with Dottin since both are from Boston.

Another option is to go big with C-Thomas, PF Sanders, SF McNeill, SG Timberlake, PG Howard. That would be the most experienced lineup but not very athletic.

 

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dennis is a huge factor late in game on defense.  protects the rim and can switch on other players. even when he is beat, he has good recovery to make shots difficult 

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12 minutes ago, TuTigers2012 said:

dennis is a huge factor late in game on defense.  protects the rim and can switch on other players. even when he is beat, he has good recovery to make shots difficult 

No doubt but can you win with him as a starter or is he just confined to being a 15-20mpg at most role player?

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