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TuTigers2012

Playoffs?

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A win at home and we are in. A loss makes it a little more complicated, but the results this past weekend really helped our case. There are scenarios where we can win a share of the CAA Title (meaningless for playoffs as we have seen in the past) , but cannot win it outright.


Below is my analysis of the the field.

 

Big Sky: Auto Bid (Weber)        2 at Large Locks:  UC Davis, EWU    Bubble: 2  MSU, Montana (both 6-4 and play each other, winner on bubble, loser is out), Idaho State (plays Weber, Go Weber!)

Big South Auto Bid (Kennesaw)   Soft Bubble 1 : Monmouth 7-3--Unlikely 

Independents:  Bubbles 1 : UND 6-5 @ Northern Arizona (Go Lumberjacks!)

MEAC: No Auto Bid (winner goes to Celebration Bowl)  Bubble 1:  NC A&T.  8-2 @ NC Central. (win puts them in if F A&M also wins and they go to the bowl) Go NCCU and Bethune Coomkman!

MVFC: Auto Bid (NDSU) At Large Lock 1: SDSU    Bubbles 4 : WIU 5-5, Indiana State 6-4 (WIU and ISU play eachother, winner is in loser probably out)  , UNI 5-5 (bad losses and 1 good win, but have history) vs. Missouri State , Ill State 5-5 @ YSU, have lost 4 straight but have an FBS win and history. 

NEC: Auto Bid (either Duquense, SHU or CCSU)  At Large/Bubbles: 0

OVC: Auto Bid (Jacksonville State)  At Large Locks: 1, SEMO (7-3 @ EIU) Go EIU!   Bubble: EKU 3 game winning streak 6-4 @ TN Tech)

Patriot: Auto Bid (Colgate)  At Large/Bubbles: 0

Pioneer: Auto Bid (San Diego) At Large/Bubbles: 0

Southern: Auto Bid (ETSU)  At Large Locks: 1, Wofford  Bubbles: 2,  Chattanooga (6-4 @ South Carolina) Furman (5-4 @ Mercer. only 10 games--Postponed against Colgate due to Hurricane)

Southland: Auto Bid (Nicholls)  At Large Locks: 0   Bubbles: 2, Incarnate Word (6-4 @ North Alabama and Iowa State 12/1..I think they cancel this if it means playoffs, ISU already has 6 wins) McNeese (6-4- Vs Lamar)

CAA: Auto Bid (Maine) At Large Locks: 2, JMU, Delaware (History and Money, Enough Said)    Bubbles: 3, Towson (7-3 vs. JMU) , Stony Brook (7-3 @ Albany), Elon (6-3 vs Maine, lost a game vs WM due to Hurricane)

 

So we have 24 spots 

10 Auto Bids= 14 spots left

7 Locks = 7 spots left

15 Bubbles/1 Super Soft Bubble

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Good research on the national outlook. 

No-brainer that we’re in with a W Saturday. I subscribe to the belief however that we’ll get in even if we lose. But you never know, so let’s just win the damn game Saturday!!

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If we lay an egg and lose in spectacular fashion we are out. A respectable loss or win gets us in with help from Flacco name and play this year..

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22 minutes ago, tualum said:

If we lay an egg and lose in spectacular fashion we are out. A respectable loss or win gets us in with help from Flacco name and play this year..

This, and we really need Maine to beat Elon.  7-3 Elon makes it in, and 6 teams from the CAA are not getting in.

Also forgot to put UNH on the bubble, but without Marty on the committee, they are done (maybe) 😏☹️

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39 minutes ago, TuTigers2012 said:

This, and we really need Maine to beat Elon.  7-3 Elon makes it in, and 6 teams from the CAA are not getting in.

Also forgot to put UNH on the bubble, but without Marty on the committee, they are done (maybe) 😏☹️

We are already a lock. Saturday is for seeding 

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If we win Saturday, I’d say we’d have a strong case for a bye, with W’s over SB, Elon & JMU. It’s a shame Villanova has had a down year. Our W over them has lost some luster. 

If we don’t win Saturday, then the threshold issue is do we even get in. If we do, the next question is do we get a home game or do we get shipped out for a road game. 

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