Skerry Era by the numbers, Part I

[Tiger93 299]

43 minutes ago, TSU88 said:

The stats I posted are purely objective; they are, after all, the stats Skerry has accumulated. It is up to the reader to subjectivity interpret them as he or she wishes. I did not skew the stats in any way. In fact, I purposely left off year 1 of Skerry’s tenure in fairness to him.

My interpretation of the numbers is as follows: Since year 2, Skerry’s avg record vs D1 opponents is 16-15; his record vs OOC opponents with winning records is I believe 10-27; his conference tournament record is 2-7. I have my own views as to what these numbers mean. You are free to have your own views as well. 

TCU88, I completely agree with this statement. I just wanted to add in the regular-season conference record since in my estimation it is every bit as important as the tournament record, and Skerry does not get enough credit for it.

In the same breath, he deserves every bit the criticism he gets for his conference tournament record because it is awful. I understand the call for a new coach and dissatisfaction with him, but I just feel we are one year away from being able to completely judge it. Admittedly, I am generally overly cautious when it comes to this because I don't believe in upsetting consistency unless things are going really bad. Things are heading in a bad direction, but I think next year there is some potential to turn it around.

For context, I also wanted to add what other programs in this conference have done in their coaching situations (with the caveat that I may be misinterpreting some of these). 

• Delaware let Monte Ross coach for 10 years (he did win one title which got him a couple of extra years) before firing him after a 7-23 season.
• Drexel let Bruiser Flint coach for 15 years (he was definitely more successful on the front of his tenure) before firing him after a disastrous 6-25 season. 
• Bill Coen did not get to his first NCAA Tournament until his ninth season (although he did get to an NIT and CBI Tournament and generally has one of the top 2-3 resumes in this conference).
• Tony Shaver has been pretty good the last six years (10+ conference wins each year), but had two winning seasons in his first 10 years. Clearly his fanbase is getting a little tired of no tournament as well.
• Tom Pecora was 154-125 and 90-71 in nine years and reached the NIT nine times at Hofstra. They hired Mihalich after he went to Fordham. Hofstra has definitely made some solid coaching hires. 
• James Madison fired Matt Brady after making one NCAA Tournament (the year there were six teams in the CAA Tourney). He went 23-13 in the conference his last two years. They fired him and Louis Rowe has gone 33-63 in his first two years. 
• UNC-Wilmington made an awesome hired with Kevin Keats who got them to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. CB McGrath is struggling two years into his tenure.
• College of Charleston basically fired Doug Wojcik because of the controversy surrounding him and new president. Earl Grant has been pretty good so far. 
• Elon has Matt Matheny who is 151-168 and has only had one winning conference record in three years.

There is no real point to this list, other than six of the nine programs have let coaches stay nine or more years in tenure within the last two hires.

UNC Wilmington seems like the program most willing to go for home run hires, and they have done fairly well. They did awesome with Brownell, Wainwright, and Keats, and are probably the poster child for moving on to the next chapter quicker than most.

College of Charleston has a good basketball reputation and moved on to the right person in Earl Grant.

James Madison's situation is probably the most similar to ours because Matt Brady was good, but not great. However, he did make an NCAA Tournament which gives him the edge over Skerry. Their recent hire of Louis Rowe (33-63 in three years) shows the other side of UNC-Wilmington in how things can go south when you are not satisfied with good and want more. 

Skerry has done a lot to move this program forward. He might not be the person to get to the next level, but I feel based on what he has done compared to his predecessors he deserves some benefit of the doubt going into next year. If we are sitting in the same place next year, I will be right there with all of you guys. Until then, I am alright with Skerry being our coach. 

[Tgr4life 167]

1 hour ago, TSU88 said:

To discount the regular season, by arguing only the conference tournament matters, is to paint with too broad a brush, I think. The regular season is important, not only, as TU2012 points out, for seeding in the tournament, but it is also important in terms of fan support/revenue & recruiting. 

If the Tigers went 2-16 in the regular season in conference, but pulled off a conference tournament win....everyone would be whooping and hollering as to how great a season it was...WE MADE THE DANCE!!!!!!!!!...but go 16-2 on conference and lose in the first round....THIS SEASON SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!

I stand by my thought....25 exhibition games and 4 days that matter.

 

[TSU88 1,070]

(1) Tiger93: good analysis in your post. I love a courteous debate. I will also say that I have posted on multiple occasions that next year is the “make it/break it” year for me. We return virtually all of our scoring from this year; our freshman this year will be sophomores (and thus improved) & we still have 2, maybe 3, ships to fill;

(2) Tgr4life: I understand your argument. I’ll just say more than 1 thing can be true at the same time. In other words, I want a program that is successful both in the regular season & postseason. Right now, I suggest we have a program trending in the wrong direction as far as the regular season goes, & has been an unmitigated failure in the postseason under this regime (as well as all his predecessors, going back to the early 90’s).

[Tgr4life 167]

I would love PS to be successful. Next year does not matter as make or break. He has a longer term contract that this department can’t afford to buyout. That is just the way it is. I don’t like to be negative, but I need a reason to think something good might happen. Other tha Brian Fobbs, I don’t see it.

[mat1992 2,231]

38 minutes ago, Tgr4life said:

If the Tigers went 2-16 in the regular season in conference, but pulled off a conference tournament win....everyone would be whooping and hollering as to how great a season it was...WE MADE THE DANCE!!!!!!!!!...but go 16-2 on conference and lose in the first round....THIS SEASON SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!

I stand by my thought....25 exhibition games and 4 days that matter.

 

Well, going 16-2 has you in the NIT at the worst. Having a winning record overall and in conference gives you a chance at the CBI or CIT. That may not mean much to most but it's better than nothing to get some extra postseason time. I don't believe that the regular season is meaningless in mid-major conferences. In a normal season, you need to get to around .500 in conference play to avoid the play-in game. You have zero shot to win the CAA out of the play-in game. It's never happened so going 2-16 in the regular season in conference does matter because stick a fork in it. It also matters in terms of attendance figures. 

[Tgr4life 167]

14 minutes ago, mat1992 said:

Well, going 16-2 has you in the NIT at the worst. Having a winning record overall and in conference gives you a chance at the CBI or CIT. That may not mean much to most but it's better than nothing to get some extra postseason time. I don't believe that the regular season is meaningless in mid-major conferences. In a normal season, you need to get to around .500 in conference play to avoid the play-in game. You have zero shot to win the CAA out of the play-in game. It's never happened so going 2-16 in the regular season in conference does matter because stick a fork in it. It also matters in terms of attendance figures. 

Are those the tournaments you have to pay 50,000 to play in? Quite a reward.

[TuTigers2012 1,061]

20 minutes ago, Tgr4life said:

I would love PS to be successful. Next year does not matter as make or break. He has a longer term contract that this department can’t afford to buyout. That is just the way it is. I don’t like to be negative, but I need a reason to think something good might happen. Other tha Brian Fobbs, I don’t see it.

Positive 1, almost our entire team returns.  Negative 1, almost our entire team returns.   Positive 2, our entire staff will be back.  Negative 2, our entire staff will be back.

WM loses next to nothing return 3 rising senior starters and have a 7 foot Wisconsin shooter transfer eligible 

Drexel loses Harper

Elon loses almost everyone (probably a good thing, they were a bad team the past 2 years but had some decent players), matheny may be fired

Delaware loses Carter and Bryant.  Brings back a ton along with a UAB sharpshooting transfer, along with a High Point and a Nova transfer

Hofstra loses JWF, Taylor but return 3 rising senior starters

NU loses Pusica, Green, and Miller but return 4 good rising seniors + Murphy  and get occeus and bourqiuot back from injury. and have the best coach  Illinois transfer will be eligible

Charleston loses Brantley, Harris and Pointer (maybe Riller goes grad transfer?) and still has a good coach

UNCW loses Cacock and has everyone who plays meaningful minutes back.

JMU- loses mosley and phillips and returns everyone else, if Rowe is back coaching them, its a guarantee we go 0-2

 

[TSU88 1,070]

On paper, W&M & Delaware should be favorites to win next year. If NE has a transfer from Illinois then I say lookout for them too. Coen has struck gold in the past with multiple transfers; no reason to think he won’t do it again. As you also point out, Hofstra, Drexel & JMU all return a lot of talent. Rowe can’t beat anyone else, but he is Kryptonoite to Skerry. 

Said it before & I’ll say it again-Skerry must hit home runs with the remaining 2 (or 3) scholarships. Even though we return practically everyone next year, TU2012 is right-none of our returning players other than Fobbs scare anyone. It’s about the quality of returning players, not the quantity 

[mat1992 2,231]

40 minutes ago, Tgr4life said:

Are those the tournaments you have to pay 50,000 to play in? Quite a reward.

Not the NIT and you aren’t paying that much money to go on the road in the other crappy tournaments. But keep thinking that winning in the regular season doesn’t matter in the CAA when Cinderella never shows up in the tournament.

[tualum 108]

2 hours ago, Tiger93 said:

TCU88, I completely agree with this statement. I just wanted to add in the regular-season conference record since in my estimation it is every bit as important as the tournament record, and Skerry does not get enough credit for it.

In the same breath, he deserves every bit the criticism he gets for his conference tournament record because it is awful. I understand the call for a new coach and dissatisfaction with him, but I just feel we are one year away from being able to completely judge it. Admittedly, I am generally overly cautious when it comes to this because I don't believe in upsetting consistency unless things are going really bad. Things are heading in a bad direction, but I think next year there is some potential to turn it around.

For context, I also wanted to add what other programs in this conference have done in their coaching situations (with the caveat that I may be misinterpreting some of these). 

• Delaware let Monte Ross coach for 10 years (he did win one title which got him a couple of extra years) before firing him after a 7-23 season.
• Drexel let Bruiser Flint coach for 15 years (he was definitely more successful on the front of his tenure) before firing him after a disastrous 6-25 season. 
• Bill Coen did not get to his first NCAA Tournament until his ninth season (although he did get to an NIT and CBI Tournament and generally has one of the top 2-3 resumes in this conference).
• Tony Shaver has been pretty good the last six years (10+ conference wins each year), but had two winning seasons in his first 10 years. Clearly his fanbase is getting a little tired of no tournament as well.
• Tom Pecora was 154-125 and 90-71 in nine years and reached the NIT nine times at Hofstra. They hired Mihalich after he went to Fordham. Hofstra has definitely made some solid coaching hires. 
• James Madison fired Matt Brady after making one NCAA Tournament (the year there were six teams in the CAA Tourney). He went 23-13 in the conference his last two years. They fired him and Louis Rowe has gone 33-63 in his first two years. 
• UNC-Wilmington made an awesome hired with Kevin Keats who got them to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. CB McGrath is struggling two years into his tenure.
• College of Charleston basically fired Doug Wojcik because of the controversy surrounding him and new president. Earl Grant has been pretty good so far. 
• Elon has Matt Matheny who is 151-168 and has only had one winning conference record in three years.

There is no real point to this list, other than six of the nine programs have let coaches stay nine or more years in tenure within the last two hires.

UNC Wilmington seems like the program most willing to go for home run hires, and they have done fairly well. They did awesome with Brownell, Wainwright, and Keats, and are probably the poster child for moving on to the next chapter quicker than most.

College of Charleston has a good basketball reputation and moved on to the right person in Earl Grant.

James Madison's situation is probably the most similar to ours because Matt Brady was good, but not great. However, he did make an NCAA Tournament which gives him the edge over Skerry. Their recent hire of Louis Rowe (33-63 in three years) shows the other side of UNC-Wilmington in how things can go south when you are not satisfied with good and want more. 

Skerry has done a lot to move this program forward. He might not be the person to get to the next level, but I feel based on what he has done compared to his predecessors he deserves some benefit of the doubt going into next year. If we are sitting in the same place next year, I will be right there with all of you guys. Until then, I am alright with Skerry being our coach. 

Sigh. We've all been saying this for the past couple of years. Let's keep the trend going for another couple more!