TuTigers2012

1 hour ago, Tiger93 said:

Yeah, I definitely think the weakness in all these basketball analytics are always that they give too much credence to efficiency and not enough to someone who may have warts, but can carry a team for better or worse for 33-40 minutes of play. 

I’d take white dubar Thomas etc over Williams. 

3 hours ago, Tiger93 said:

I would agree. I know scoring is not the end-all-be-all of player assessment, but hard to imagine the 17th-ranked scorer in conference play being the race for Player of the Year. Also, even on that player breakdown they have him 14th on what appears to be a similar stat to WAR in baseball called PRPG (I find it interesting that Williamson is our highest ranked player on this at 21). He is first in what I believe is the average +/- per game. Although, I would guess that will change with trips to UNC-W and Charleston. 

He plays 22 mpg. He’s good but needs to be dominant for that amount of time to be considered.  

12 minutes ago, Tiger93 said:

Some of these analytics are not always the best as it relates to actual knowledge or information about the conference, but they are interesting reference points:

Regular-season title odds - https://barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=CAA
Player of the Year odds (again I have no idea what data set they use for this - https://barttorvik.com/poy.php?conlimit=CAA&year=2024&yr=
Conference-only efficiency stats - https://barttorvik.com/teamstats.php?conyes=1&conlimit=CAA&year=2024&sort=2
Conference-only player ratings - https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&minGP=1&cvalue=CAA&year=2024&start=20240101&end=20240203

Interesting.  I just don’t understand Williams that high in POTY. 

2 hours ago, mat1992 said:

Free shirts to first 1,000 people. Free camo hats to first 500. Concession prices slashed again. Hopefully decent student crowd if Greeks come. 

On the site there seems to be a decent amount of tickets sold 

2 hours ago, TSU88 said:

Yes, I heard Zorba the Greek & Aristotle Onasis will be there. Maybe even Socrates and the original Aristotle as well 😆

Is there a Greek God of wins in March? If so let’s get them to hang around 

Isn’t this one of those Greek nights?  Should be a good crowd

13 minutes ago, Tiger93 said:

Agreed, my only point on Charleston is I thought we showed up and played a solid game against them in the tournament last year they were just better than us. It wasn't like 2022, where we were the best team and didn't really show up. I am not saying either one is better than the other, because at the end of the day we didn't accomplish our goals either year. My main point is everything is more wide open this year. I am not sure if that is better or worse, it is just the state of the conference this year. 

there was a 8-10 minute stretch of that game that we didn’t show up for 😂 but otherwise we outplayed them/even. 
It is wide open which makes it more difficult IMO. only takes one bad game when shots aren’t falling (and no one’s more familiar with than us!). The very unbalanced schedules will definitely throw a wrench in that

its realistically Charleston Drexel us Hofstra Delaware stony and Monmouth for 3 of the 4 byes. (I don’t see anyway baring injuries that UNCW doesn’t take a spot). The Monmouth stony brook game in 2 weeks could be a win and get a top 4. 

11 minutes ago, Tiger93 said:

Here is what I wrote earlier about this topic. We have had three good shooting halfs, six bad ones, and one fairly solid half. The good news is that a lot of teams have road struggles and no one is any more familiar with the conference tournament area then we are. I also don't think there is a team as good as Charleston was last year, so in that respect the conference seems more up for grabs. The bad news is our conference tournament karma and history, and it only takes on bad shooting half to sink a team in single elimination. 

On the road in conference play, we are now 103-277 (37.2%). If you take out the 30-58 performance at Charleston (which obviously shouldn't be taken out) it gets a lot worse. We have six bad halfs, one decent half and three good halfs. We shot 57% in the second half at Northeastern, 50% and 54% at Charleston, and a decent 43% in the first half at Delaware.  We shot 33% in the first half against Hofstra and 27% in the second half, 24% in the first half at Northeastern, 35% in the second half at Delaware, and 23% and 31% at Monmouth. 

I love the effort and defense of this team, but this is one of the big reasons why as much as I like the talent and depth on this roster it gets very dicey come tournament play. Right now, in 10 halfs away from Towson in CAA play, six of the 10 have been 35% or worse shooting halfs. One half like that sinks you tournament play.

What’s the old saying about role players? They show up more often than not a home but not on the road.  A team with balanced scoring and can have anyone lead the team any given night is a nice thing. But to have that on the road is much tougher. 
 

While Charleston isn’t as good as last year, the middle pack schools are better than last

9 hours ago, Bay Area Tiger said:

Yeah. Previously stated such. Being in the middle of the conference sucks for this. 

6th in fg %. 4th in 3%. 6th in d rebounding %. Middle of pack in turnovers.  ABOVE average. And that’s helped by playing slow

6 minutes ago, Tiger93 said:

Agreed somewhat on our pace dictating the defense. However, if you sort the numbers in conference vs. non-conference it is a very different story. Our defensive efficiency in non-conference was 1.035 points per possession, which was ranked 166th in the nation. Since conference play started, we are 57th in defensive efficiency (0.984 points per possessions).

This probably supports the notion that our conference is a little weaker defensively, and most opponents play into our hands with a slower tempo. However, I would say our defense has definitely raised its level in conference play, with some of that being helped by familiarity of the opponent. Second through sixth is pretty similar in terms of opponent field goal percentage in conference play, and we have only played two games against the bottom part of our conference (of course one of those was the lost to Northeastern). Conversely, Drexel leads the team in opponent field goal percentage, but has played four of its 10 games against teams with losing records, and hasn't play Charleston, Hofstra or UNC-W yet. 

As for Charles, I really think it is about what is going on in the context of the game. We don't need him to shoot or score if any two of Tejada, May, Tarke or Williamson are shooting well. Those players all have a better offensive skillset than he does, and Charles isn't particularly great at getting easy looks unless it is playing off a two-man game on the roll with one of those players. It was very helpful when he got to the line and made his free throws in the second half against Northeastern last week. As for offensive rebounds, Lowery, Jones and Sulaiman are all pretty active in that category which limits his opportunities. He is probably the fourth best offensive rebounder on the team.

To me, what we need more out of him is limiting other teams offensive rebounds (he is probably our best defensive rebounder), setting the tone for our switching defense (he has his lapses, but his quickness, toughness and versatility are the reason we can play this defense), guarding the best post player (he is third on the team in steals and first blocks, and generally makes it tough for the person he is defending), and bringing the energy to the team (he is still our heart and soul and everyone knows it). These are his strengths, and when he leans into them and other players do what they do well it generally works.

When he is asked to play outside of this role, it can take us out of the offense because it takes him a while to make his move and get to the basket. I know he is the team leader, but I don't think scoring is what we need from him unless it is something the other team is giving us on a silver platter. I actually think him and Skerry know that. He looks to see what the other team givens him and capitalizes if he sees it. 

Agree and wasn’t saying our defense was awful. It’s not elite. It’s above average and a lot of that is due to pace, that masks a lot of things. Until Saturday we had done a good job at defending the three. 
 

that is fine and all but he’s a 5th year senior and capable of giving more than 2 points 1 offensive rebound. Not asking for him to be wilt or Kareem, or even last years charles but we need just a bit more from him especially against teams with no front court.  We also need him to stay on the court thrusts against Jyaire 

Sort of CAA, when Delaware leaves and if Charleston and others defect, we need to add High Point, right?!

11 hours ago, Moleman1 said:

Playing against Hofstra, a usually quick Williamson who's been scoring well recently was blunted by the "speedy" defense of Hofstra's guards.. As for others on the Tiger's offense who might penetrate in to score, they too were often stymied by double and triple defenders who collapsed on our ball handlers; ie I think maybe what's needed is improvement with our drive-and-dish plays.. We've got a team that has remarkable talent in rebounding, decent defending, 10 man depth, and now remarkable FT skill. Just some flaws on offense that need straightening out, incl Tejada's scoring slump. He had the magic, so he can get it back; just hope it happens soon. 

Hofstra is better defensively than in years past but 56 points against them isn’t enough. 

12 hours ago, Tiger93 said:

That was the first time since the Monmouth game that we have been under a point per possession in a game (.933 points per game in 60 possession) and it was not pretty. I think to some extent Skerry is right that it is make or miss game, and we missed a lot. If we have a couple more shots we win that game, but (and I am not saying this to be critical Skerry, just in genera) it is bad habit to think that way. 

On the road in conference play, we are now 103-277 (37.2%). If you take out the 30-58 performance at Charleston (which obviously shouldn't be taken out) it gets a lot worse. We have six bad halfs, one decent half and three good halfs. We shot 57% in the second half at Northeastern, 50% and 54% at Charleston, and a decent 43% in the first half at Delaware.  We shot 33% in the first half against Hofstra and 27% in the second half, 24% in the first half at Northeastern, 35% in the second half at Delaware, and 23% and 31% at Monmouth. 

I love the effort and defense of this team, but this is one of the big reasons why as much as I like the talent and depth on this roster it gets very dicey come tournament play. Right now, in 10 halfs away from Towson in CAA play, six of the 10 have been 35% or worse shooting halfs. One half like that sinks you tournament play.

Tip your cap to Thomas who made some tough shots. One thing that has been brought up on this board is how good Lowery plays on defense, but what a liability he can be on offense. There was a 4-5 possession stretch where Lowery was covering Thomas. One time Thomas just got the angle on him and hit a jumper, but the other 3-4 times Lowery forced him to him pass it or miss the shot. I think if we played Hofstra again, I would probably use Lowery in that matchup more. The stretch where Lowery was guarding Thomas is where we made our run at the end to tie it at 54 (I am pretty sure). Mat mentioned some good defense by Tarke, and Tarke did make a great block on Carlos with the game tied at 54 to give us a chance to take the lead late. Unfortunately, he had one of his several really bad possession when he committed an offensive charge. 

I honestly think you guys are being a little hard on Charles. The only reason he was a good offensive player at times in 2021-22 was because there were so many options on offense that things came easy to him and Timberlake. When either of those guys are a clear-cut second option on offense things won't come easy. Charles had some bad turnovers, but he had the assist on May's game-tying three late, and also had a couple of key blocks. I like when he scores, but I would rather see this then him force up a bunch of ill-advised shots. 

Honestly, this offense seems at its best when May and Williamson are scoring. They combined for 37 against Northeastern and 39 at Delaware. Yesterday they had 10 points combined. It was probably he 21 bench points, 17 of which came from Sulaiman (10) and Jones (7). Those two had 11 offensive rebounds combined. Unfortunately, Jones, who had been making his shots at a high clip recently, was only 1-6 and missed 3-4 layups in traffic. The team was 10-22 on layups. 

One positive trend I would love to see this team keep up is the free-throw shooting lately. We are 59-70 (84.3%) the last three games and an impossible to replicate 40-44 (90.9%) in the last two. 

Hofstra still hosts Drexel, but UNC-W misses out on traveling there. That will be a tough place to win, and only Charleston has beaten them at home. We have four home and four road games left. Nothing can really be assumed, but I would guess 5-3 is the worst we can go to get a top 4 seed.

I know it is early for this nonsense, but I will start it. Here are the top 6 teams remaining games:

Drexel - at UNC-W, at Charleston, vs. Hofstra, vs. Campbell, at Hofstra, at Delaware, vs. Stony Brook, vs. Northeastern
Towson - vs. Delaware, vs. Elon, at William & Mary (who almost beat Charleston yesterday), at Hampton, vs. Monmouth, vs. Charleston, at NC A&T, at UNC-W
UNC-W - vs. Drexel, at Hampton, vs. NC A&T, vs. Elon, at William & Mary, at Campbell, vs. Hofstra, vs. Towson
Charleston - vs. NC A&T, vs. Drexel, at Northeastern, vs. William & Mary, at Delaware, at Towson, vs. Campbell, vs. Hofstra
Hofstra - at Hampton, at NC &T (I think they lose there last year), at Drexel, vs. Northeastern, at Hofstra, vs. Elon, at UNC-W, at Charleston
Delaware - at Towson, vs. William & Mary, at Elon, at NC A&T, vs. Charleston, vs. Drexel, at Stony Brook 

Our defense is average and it’s bolstered by playing slow. Hofstra shot 45.1 and 47.8% from deep. We turned them over 10 times which is good on the number of possessions. 

 Would have liked lowery on Thomas more than May. He looked tired and that affected his offense. We need him to score.  
Charles  isn’t an offensive player but he needs more than 2 points, 3 shots and 1 offensive rebound against a small pride team  chase had better numbers in half the minutes. 

3 hours ago, mat1992 said:

Ok, let's start with the Good, Bad, and Ugly. And some nights, it's tough to find the ugly, but tonight it was pretty clear. 

Good

*Rebounding was great. Towson did what they needed to at 42-32 on the boards and had 17 offensive rebounds.

*Jones and Sulamain were pretty good. They combined for 17 points and 16 rebounds

*Free throw shooting continues to improve. They were 14 of 15 tonight (93.3%)

*This was the last (fifth) of these ridiculous CAA home/road splits for Thursday/Saturday. To come out 7-3 after that isn't bad. 

*Tarke led the team with 12 points, 5 rebs, 3 steals and a block. Has quick hands.

Bad

*What is bad was the shooting tonight. Just awful. 6 of 23 from beyond the arc and 30%. Hofstra was 11 of 23 from beyond the arc for 47.8%. Some shots were wide open and others like that Tyler Thomas shot from NBA range was in May's grill. Though as PS said, they were a tick slow in their rotations.

*When you have 17 offensive rebounds, you need to convert more shots down low, but that's been an issue all season. Jones had 5 offensive rebounds and just one basket. It's not like Hofstra has Amari Williams blocking shots.

*Tarke had some open looks that he couldn't hit and had four turnovers with no assists. Not that he doesn't make the extra pass. But he's at his best when he drives to dish and to score if it's there. 

Ugly

*CT had 8 rebounds but two points and two costly turnovers.

*I still don't think Tejada should start and he rarely plays in the last five minutes. He did make his first three but wound up going 3 of 12 tonight.

*Rough game for May. Did hit a three late to tie the game, but had several open looks. Had just 5 points and was 2 for 10. This was one of those games where you thought, I'd like to have a Timberlake, who can get hot and carry the team. They don't have that and Williamson (1-5 3pt) was slowed tonight and got very few open looks.

*Why is CT dribbling the ball up and ignoring Dylan? I don't get it.

 

Look, this was a strange game. This team should not have been in the game late. They certainly claw and scratch their way, but here's the problem with this club. Yes, shooting can be bad, but if you just go with Tejada and Williamson to boost the offense, you might lose something defensively. If you want to play Lowery more and he can be one of the most spectacular defenders I've seen in his program, you lose something offensively. He's also going to make mistakes the more you play him. The freshmen need to contribute, but for this team to grab a top four seed, they have to get more out of CT, Tarke and May. Shooters are going to miss at times and I know May's dribble-drive game is awkward. Maybe more mid-range shots. Push it a little more in transition. 

You see Tarkes play as “good”?  Based on scoring slightly more points than his other teammates?  Anything else? Truly an honest question.  The lack of defense at times, isn’t good enough for 30% shooter. He’s a “stat stuffer” and gambles on defense. Has not been the lock down or even solid defender we needed. 4 turnovers 

Had prior obligations and couldn’t watch this live and just saw it on DVR. Yikes. 3 road games holding teams under what 67 and 2 of those under 60 and you lose?  Missed opportunities but it seems like we are happy here because we “played hard”. For the love of God can Pat please go to nyc and get a tough guard who can get his own shot. Pride always have tough offensive guards but lack the depth and rebounding. We always have guys who can rebound but have minimal skill.
 

Hofstra has the three most talented offensive players on the court but we did nothing to make those guys work defensively and gave up too many east looks to others.
 

Have to finish through contact and run better sets. The lack of energy from the two seniors is appalling. Is the meac that bad that he was DOPTY?!  
 

parr and the 2 4s fought hard and had decent games.  Hold Hofstra to under 65 you need to win. 

Thursday is a must win for the top 4 and double bye especially since our road record is not great 

41 minutes ago, Tiger93 said:

I still think the main goal is to win the conference, but it is too early to go there and top four is the first step in that conversation. No doubt this is a very difficult matchup for Towson. We played great up there two years ago and were playing well last year in the first half until they shredded our defense in the second half. Hitting a shot at the buzzer to win after trailing by 13 to Stony Brook last game has to give them so momentum heading into tonight's game.

Northeastern feels like the one team so far in this conference that has found a way to get a lot of good looks against our defense, but give Towson credit for really clamping down in that second half. I still wonder if there is anything on the Northeastern film that other teams can use. Although, their style and personnel seems a lot different than others teams in the conference. I have only watched small parts of Hofstra games this year, but the few times I have watched they seem like a really talented team that isn't getting the most collectively out of that talent. Hopefully that spark doesn't go off tonight. Would be nice to be tied for first at the end of the day. 

Winning regular season only guarantees a 1 seed. While that’s good it’s not the ultimate goal.  With unbalanced schedule and tiebreakers it’s a semi crapshoot. But let’s not get ahead of it.
Hofstra can score but they don’t have a big. Need a good game from Charles today.  May, tarke, Suliman and lowery are going to need to play much better on defense than on Thursday (especially the first two)

What’s wrong with the women’s team?! Preseason favorite and now at the bottom of the league

18 minutes ago, TSU88 said:

 

Yes it’s no longer guaranteed. We all (well most of us) know what the ultimate goal is but finishing top 4 is crucial.  
 

it’s homecoming tomorrow at Hofstra and they are giving away Speedy jerseys to 500 students, 25 buck tickets with food and drinks for alumni, and a chance to win a car. That with it being on tv should be their best crowd of the year  

1 hour ago, Tiger93 said:

I was thinking bigger, but I get your point about the top four. A win on the road at Hofstra would give us some good separation from one of the major threats to be a top four team.

That UNCW sweep of Charleston is going to loom large in the conference title race. Drexel is off this Saturday and goes to UNC-W and Charleston in their next two, followed by playing two of three against Hofstra in their following three.

Something tells me if we can win at Hofstra we can start credibly putting ourselves at the UNC-W/Charleston level of the conference conversation. Still too far away to start talking about conference titles, but if Towson wins this weekend it would be tied for first with Drexel with no more road games against Drexel, Delaware, Charleston or Monmouth (they haven't lost at home in conference play yet). There are still a lot of landmines and it is way too early to assume wins, but we have set ourselves up well so far. 

Top 4 is now the goal since NIT doesn’t happen for finishing first.  Finish top 4. Get whatever amount of byes and go from there. 
Hofstra is tough at home and has three really good offensive weapons 

To get a top 4 spot, this game is crucial. 

8 hours ago, mat1992 said:

1)Drexel falls to 8-2 after a loss to Monmouth on the road on Thursday

2)Towson improves to 7-2 after a win over Northeastern

3)UNCW improves to 6-3 after a road win over CofC

4)Charleston falls to 6-3 after a home loss to UNCW

5)Delaware improves to 5-4 after a road win over W&M

6)Hofstra improves to 5-4 after a home win over SB

7)Monmouth improves to 5-4 after a home win over Drexel

8)Campbell improves to 5-4 after a road win over Elon

9)NC A&T improves to 5-4 after a home win over Hampton

10)Stony Brook falls to 4-5 after a road loss to Hofstra

11)NE falls to 3-6 after a road loss to Towson

12)W&M falls to 3-6 after a home to Delaware

13)Elon falls to 2-7 after a home loss to Cambpell

14)Hampton falls to 0-10 after a road loss to NC A&T

Last nights games were wild. 3-8 will likely end with very similar records so H2H Tiebreakers are going to be important.  
Looking at some schedules, Monmouth could very well take a top 4 seed  

10 hours ago, TSU88 said:

Ok, if you’ve never saw Kurk Lee play, you saw him tonight, in DWill. He’s not going to do this every night but damn, how refreshing is it to have a kid who can go 1-on-1 and take over a game?

Big sky point to CT, who’s foul shooting down the stretch was sparkling. And did you notice he hit a shot tonight facing the basket!!

So, I was very critical of Sulaiman in the chat room in the first half, but wow, he really stepped it up on D, and even on O, in the 2nd half.

Kudos to Tarke who played under control and dished out 5 assists and what can you say about Lowery’s D? 

I thought we were going to get blown out in the 1st half, but our D turned the game around in the 2nd half. And the FT  was phenomenal. Actually, beyond phenomenal. Can we bottle it?  What is this now, 18 straight home wins? I guess the irony is it’ll probably now be tougher than ever to get teams to come play us at home. 

The size of the crowd was disappointing, but it was engaged right from the beginning of the game & was louder than larger crowds we’ve had.

I don’t know what’s going to happen in the conference tournament, but I’m going to enjoy this for now. This may be sacrilege, but , given what he’s got to work with, Skerry may be doing his best coaching job since he’s been here. The only real down note about tonight is Tejada is now officially in a funk, having scored I think a total of 8 points in the last three games. 

On to the Island of Long. 

 

 

 

Agree. Being a Pat basher, I give him credit. I think he’s done a fantastic job the last 4 weeks. After going 6-6 in OOC and losing that first league game, to sit 13-8 and 7-2 is pretty impressive. The parts seem to fit better this year and the freshmen have been big. Can contribute atleast 3 wins due to the late play of Williamson and Tejada in caa play. 
We have a yearly run like this and it typically comes to a screeching halt. Just the pessimist in me where I’m waiting for Lucy to pull the football away from us. Will and have enjoyed this run though. 
It is strange (not really!) how much better we play when Charles is not bringing the ball up. Our better play coincided with him playing in the actual post.  First half last night he brought it up atleast 4 times which led to nothing.  He’s a good passes out of the post. Get it to him there!

crowd was bad but what do you expect when you don’t market it or give away free tickets?  
 

Long Island will be tough tomorrow. That’s also a very hot team up there with 3 guards who can absolutely do everything. Gonna need the defense from lowery tarke May and Suliman in that one

Hell of a second half by Dylan and Suliman to save us from a lackluster effort the first 25 minutes.  Bench came to play tonight. 
Big one on Saturday 

Always a tough out for us no matter their record.  
they are probably the only team in the league with a winning record at secu or whatever it’s called now (6-5).  10-17 against the cold dogs since pat took over

17 minutes ago, TTiger2024 said:

Semi - agree (for once ?) love to have that semi-automatic goto guy (usually a grd at mid major) …for tournament-time.   But; if you tell me Tark, May, and Dwill keep progressing (front court aside , which I love ) ….. LFG; who should we be scared of ?  Make / miss tournament/ league / game - but I KNOW 💯 we will defend and rebound .   We getting sneaky good!  Even you gotta (albeit half) smile !     Now FUKK NORTHEASTERN

Hell freezing over. Guard play is important. Tarke and Williamson are much better, and thus we are better, when they drive. I, and hopefully everyone else, don’t want to see tarke shoot flat footed threes for 25 feet with 18 left on the shot clock. Williamson has actually shot better than his numbers indicate since he’s had atleast 15-20 threes that were heaves with the shot clock winding down.