TSU88

Sometimes the other team is just better. Elon has a (slightly) worse record, & we thumped them head-to-head. We should get in. Delaware beat us, but they closed with 2 losses, including a bad thumping vs Villanova today. It’s out of our hands. On to selection Sunday

So you’re saying we have a chance?😊

It’s not a good sign when we’re hoping that the return of McNeill to the lineup will provide a spark. Thomas probably had one of the best offense games of his career tonight. Tunstall had 8 boards & some blocks, & Timberlake & Fobbs show promise. Beyond that, I don’t know.

I’m trying not to read too much into 1 game. But, against what appears to be a below average mid-major in Pepperdine, we shot less than 40% from the field & a miserable 3-16 from 3. Not to mention a mind numbing 25 turnovers. If tonight was a true barometer, it’s going to be a long, long season. Here’s what I find particularly troubling. In 3 games so far, we’ve been torched by an opposing guard on 3-pt FG’s. The top three 3-point shooters in our 3 games so far are shooting 23-41, for a smoking 57%. Meanwhile, in those same 3 games, our entire team is 15-54 from 3, for a pitiful 28%. The college game these days is all about shooting 3’s. Not only can’t we shoot them, but we can’t defend them. This is a recipe for disaster. (Don’t even get me started on our complete failure in recruiting a quality PG for so many years that I’ve lost count).

Ok, there are 14 at-large bids to be had. In 2017, 5 went to teams who finished 7-4 (N. AZ, New Hampshire, S Dakota, N Iowa & Furman; In 2016, four 7-4 teams & one 6-5 team got in: Cal Poly, Weber State, New Hampshire, Illinois State & Samford; In 2015, five 7-4 teams & one 6-5 team made it: W Illinois, E Illinois, Northern Iowa, Montana, Colgate & (naturally) New Hampshire. So, in the last three years that’s 16 out of 42 at large bids (basically 36%) that went to 7-4 or 6-5 teams

The teams have 4 common opponents this year-W&M, SB, Elon & Nova. We went 4-0, JMU went 3-1 (losing to Elon). In the games vs common opponents, we out scored our opponents 167-86, for an average score of 42-21 (average margin of victory 21 points). JMU’s composite score against the same 4 teams was 125-37, for an average score of 31-9 (average margin of victory 22 points). For the entire season, we average 38 ppg, & give up 27. JMU averages 36ppg & gives up 14. We average 460 yards per game & give up 367. JMU averages 400 ypg & gives up 272. What is the takeaway? At the risk of stating the obvious, our offense is going to have to be stellar, as the numbers suggest JMU is going to score around 30. We scored 28 on a very good Maine D, & that wasn’t enough. I would think JMU’s D is comparable to Maine’s.

The CAA Rep is from URI

I don’t know, but this comment about 8 wins from the chair strikes me as somewhat ominous

I say we tie his shoestrings together.

If we win Saturday, I’d say we’d have a strong case for a bye, with W’s over SB, Elon & JMU. It’s a shame Villanova has had a down year. Our W over them has lost some luster. If we don’t win Saturday, then the threshold issue is do we even get in. If we do, the next question is do we get a home game or do we get shipped out for a road game.

No doubt that all this “on the bubble” chatter would be moot if we win Saturday. And your point about seeding is well taken. If we lose Saturday, no bye (assuming we get in). Not only no bye, but we could end up being sent on the road. Btw, Maine’s QB is day-to-day after injuring his shoulder last Saturday. The Maine- Elon game starts 2 hours before ours on Saturday.

They’re a good team. In fact, I’m a Black Bears 🐻 fan this Saturday. I do respectfully part ways with you regarding your assertion they “took us to the woodshed.” They beat us by 1 TD, after the game ended when we failed to convert on a 1st & goal.

While on the topic, Maine’s FBS win was vs 1-9 WKU, while they also have an FBS loss, to 1-10 CMU.

But Maine also has losses to 5-4 Yale & 4-5 W&M

In all fairness, Maine & UD beat us & are ranked below us in the coaches poll. We have 1,784 points in the coaches poll; the #25 team has 152. I’m hard pressed to see how even if we lose Saturday we would fall out of the top 25.

On a side note, Maine’s QB injured his shoulder Saturday & left the game in the 2nd Q. I’d feel much better if plays Saturday vs Elon. Fortunately, the game is in Maine, & Maine’s D vs an Elon O that struggles in the passing game should be a favorable matchup for Maine.

As will our O. Maine, which held us to 28, gives up on average 21ppg, while JMU gives up on average only 14ppg

Good research on the national outlook. No-brainer that we’re in with a W Saturday. I subscribe to the belief however that we’ll get in even if we lose. But you never know, so let’s just win the damn game Saturday!!

Biggest surprise of the game for me was seeing Thomas dunk. Honestly, that’s the 1st time in 4 seasons I remember him dunking.

A few random observations from watching this game in person: - was surprised to read Howard had 6 assists. He strikes me as a shoot 1st guy. Hoisted up a lot of shots early. That’s fine...if he’s hitting them. Dottin on on the other hand doesn’t look like he’s going to contribute much on the offensive end. Let’s face it, recruiting a good PG has been Skerry’s achilles heel since he’s been here. - I like Timberlake, notwithstanding his somewhat unorthodox shooting form. He could be a good one next year & beyond - I like Betrand’s athletisim. He’s a little rough around the edges now, but another kid who’s best days are ahead of him - very impressed with Solomon U. Showed the ability to get to the rim and a nice touch from the foul line (a rarity on this squad). I temper this with the level of competition he played against today, but he could be one of these kids who takes a big leap between his freshman and sophomore years - Sanders has some skills around the basket. He’s going to struggle mightily at the foul line though. In close games, I don’t see how you can play him towards the end of the game. Reminds me in that regard of the guy who played at Hofstra, Gustas - I’m resigned to a 2-3ppg season from Alex Thomas. I guess the best we can hope for is 4-5 boards a game, & solid D, until he inevitably gets in foul trouble - kudos to Drayton for a very productive game tonight. I need to see him do it against better competition though - The more I see of Fobbs, the more I like. I could see him averaging 10-12ppg - I think we’re something like 28 of 54 from the foul line after 2 games. Will we wind up as one of, if not the worst foul shooting teams in the country? - anxious to see us play some comparable mid-majors, with McNeill & Tunstall in the lineup (I hope Tunstall’s injury isn’t going to be a nagging issue all season). UVA was above our pay grade & Wesley was too far below it (even though we made one of their players look like Steph Curry).

An all out marketing blitz would be nice. Local radio & tv outlets & on campus.

So, apparently we’re not the only ones with concerns about poor attendance & student apathy. This post on the Elon board is interesting...reads that the attendance yesterday (on what appeared to be a nice fall day) was around 3K, with very few students. Also interesting to read we had about 200 (vocal) fans in attendance

While I’ll be the 1st to admit math never was my strongest subject, if Elon beats Maine & we lose to JMU, Elon finishes 7-3, which would be a better record than our 7-4. That early season postponement of the Elon vs W&M game (due to weather) could have playoff implications

If they both finish with better records than us, notwithstanding we beat each of them, there’s the risk they get in over us. This is why I’m going to be a Maine fan this weekend, in their game vs Elon. I’m also going to be pulling for Albany over SB, but I think it’s improbable that the Scooby Doo’s, who are winless in conference, are going to beat SB.

I would think from past history that 5 (maybe 6) CAA teams get in. Maine & JMU are locks. UD, SB, Elon & TU are the remainders. If only 3 of those 4 make it, we need Elon or SB to lose. If the committee is going to put in 6 teams, we’re in regardless of what happens next Saturday