I know you are stating reasons for the extension. But there are more against it (at the time it was given). ~.500 record (we were ~.500 prior to him, with a weak league, and did not come close to sniffing the playoffs. The lack of big, or any for the fact, home wins, and the fact that NO ONE is looking to poach a coach with his resume and age, are all reason enough to not jump the gun and give an extension prior to this season.
This is not 15 years ago where it takes 3 years to build your program and culture. It was not going to happen overnight, but he had a lot of his guys here, and coming into year 2 with his QB who was ROTY last season. If we failed this season (which we have), it would be a lot easier to eat 1 year, than 2-3 years. A lame duck coach is not great, but with the ease of transferring nowadays, players can jump ship and join very quickly, where it is not as big of a factor. If $ is tight (which we all know it is), then why F was an extension given. And why was it not released to the public. Honestly did the AD see the last 3 years and say, we are definitely trending upward and going in the right direction??! At best, we just were chasing our tails.