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mat1992

2023 Volleyball thread

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9 minutes ago, TigersTigers said:

Not that this matters at all, but just kind of a fun little circumstance: for the first time in what feels like forever, Towson is not the highest ranked CAA team in the RPI. They moved up 8 spots to 76 this week, but that is still 9 spots behind Delaware at 67. The conference’s overall RPI has steadily risen as the season has gone on; Campbell is on a good run and is up to 111, and Hofstra and Northeastern both sit around 150. This is a pretty big improvement from last year, although still considerably worse than where the conference stood from 2013-2017, when there would consistently be 4 or 5 CAA teams in the top 120. Like I said, this doesn’t really matter at all right now, as no CAA team has a chance at an at-large tournament birth, unlike last year.

Where is the caa in comparison to other mid majors usually?  Hoops used to be like 8-12 with the Virginia powers but now sits around 14-20 range out of the 31 conferences. Are there any good mid major teams/leagues consistently out there?

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The CAA currently sits 22nd out of 33 conferences this season, which is lower than I expected. IMO, this somewhat goes to demonstrate that the RPI is an imperfect system. The Patriot League sits at 14th, and anybody who knows volleyball would never put the Patriot League ahead of the CAA. Last season, the CAA ended up 19th, and the league is CLEARLY better this season. The conference peaked at 8 in 2015, and has reliably been somewhere between 12-17 since then. In 2021, the league was 12th, but the overall RPI took a hit with JMU’s departure and the entrance of the mediocre Stony Brook and A&T, and the embarrassing Hampton. Campbell was a positive addition this year, and I think the league will rebound and finish above the 19th of last year. As for traditionally strong midmajor conferences, the WCC, AAC, Sun Belt, and Mountain West are always strong. After them, despite its low rating these last two seasons, the CAA is still a relatively well-regarded league, in large part thanks to the strength of Towson. When comparing it to leagues with athletic departments of similar sizes, the CAA outperforms and is held in better esteem than the ASUN, SoCon, Patriot League, Ivy League, America East, etc. 

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Two more wins on the road against A&T allow the Tigers to keep their hold on first place with just two weeks left in the regular season. After expanding the conference tournament to 8 teams last year, it has been re-compressed down to its traditional 6-team format. With that in mind, the standings look like this:

1. Towson - 12-2

2. Delaware - 11-3

3. Campbell - 9-5

T4. Hofstra and Northeastern - 8-6

T6. W&M, Stony Brook, UNCW, CofC - 7-7

10. NC A&T - 6-8

Elon and Hampton are irrelevant

Quite the logjam around that last playoff spot. It’ll be a tense end to the season for half the league.

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Two 3-dongs against Elon push the Tigers to 14-2 with one week to go in the regular season. It’s honestly sad to see the state of Elon right now; this is a team that was 3 points away from winning the CAA in 2021, and the only team that beat Towson in 2022. Now, with some of the same players still in the lineup as in 2021, they are an absolute doormat. It’s unfortunate that they have not been able to sustain that short window of success. During today’s match, Towson messed around with the lineup for Senior Day and still easily beat them.

That said, entering the final two matches, the playoff race looks like this:

Towson (14-2), Delaware (13-3), and Campbell (11-5) are in

Stony Brook (9-7), Charleston (9-7), and Northeastern (9-7) would be in if the season ended today

Hofstra (8-8), W&M (8-8), and UNCW (7-9) are still alive

NC A&T (6-10), Elon (2-14), and Hampton (0-16) are eliminated

The matchups for next week: Towson@Northeastern, Delaware@Elon, Campbell@NC A&T, Stony Brook@Hofstra, Charleston@Hampton, W&M@UNCW

Northeastern has historically been a tough place to play for Towson, but I’d bet on these Tigers to win at least one match in Boston. If they do so, they will be the #1 seed. Northeastern could be in trouble; two losses would put them at 9-9, teetering right on the edge of where you need to be to make it in.

Delaware vs. Elon holds little consequence, but Delaware could snatch the #1 seed with two wins and two Towson losses. Two wins would also guarantee the Blue Hens the #2 seed, which would give them a first-round bye.

Campbell vs. A&T is also meaningless, save for the minuscule chance that Delaware loses twice and Campbell is able to snatch the #2 seed. That won’t happen, so the Camels are pretty much locked in to conclude an impressive debut campaign by taking the #3 seed.

Charleston can rest easy after two huge victories against Hofstra this weekend. they will get in comfortably with two freebies over Hampton, most likely as the #4 seed. The Cougars have been trending in the right direction, and will be a tough out in the tournament.

Hofstra has totally underperformed, and now needs to beat Stony Brook twice to get in. One win for the Seawolves clinches a berth. The sheer fact that Hofstra has must-win games in Week 9 means this season has been a mess for them. They are a better team than Stony Brook, but I’m not taking anything for granted here. 

W&M and UNCW are both currently on the outside looking in, despite both having exceeded expectations this season. The Seahawks absolutely have to win both matches to have a chance to get in, and even that might not be enough. The Tribe are in better shape; two wins likely puts them in, although it’s technically not a 100% guarantee. One win would put them at 9-9, at which point it’d be up to fate.

All in all, this has been a fantastic CAA season. The league is much deeper than it was a year ago. There is competition at the top, a logjam in the middle of the pack, and 10 of the 12 teams have proven capable of putting up a fight. This will be an exciting final week, and the tournament is sure to be quite unpredictable as well.

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A wild final weekend has brought the CAA regular season to a close, and the tournament field has finally solidified. There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll start with the good guys.

Towson managed to maintain their grip on the #1 seed and the outright regular-season championship with two dominant victories over Northeastern, meaning they have ensured that the CAA tournament will return to SECU Arena for a 5th consecutive year in 2024. Early-season reports that the Tigers' best years are behind them have proven to be greatly exaggerated; they are 23-5, 16-2 in conference, and are the favorites to return to the NCAA tournament. However, this will be the strongest tournament field that the Tigers have faced since their winning run began in 2019. Anybody can beat anybody in this bracket. Before Towson's run, this conference was rife with parity from 2012-2018, and it appears to be on its way to returning to the status quo. 

Here are the final standings:

  1. Towson (16-2)
  2. Delaware (15-3)
  3. Campbell (13-5)
  4. Charleston (11-7)
  5. Stony Brook (11-7)
  6. Northeastern (9-9)
  7. UNCW (9-9)
  8. Hofstra (8-10)
  9. William & Mary (8-10)
  10. NC A&T (6-12)
  11. Elon (2-16)
  12. Hampton (0-16)

Northeastern closed out their Sunday loss against and immediately turned their heads to the scoreboard, where they needed a couple results to fall their way in order to get into the tournament. W&M and Hofstra were both still mathematically alive on Sunday, and Northeastern needed both to lose to get in. Lo and behold, they got their wish. UNCW, who was already eliminated going into Sunday, completed a weekend sweep over the Tribe to end their season prematurely.

Stony Brook, already having clinched with their Saturday win over the Pride, did their part as well, sweeping Hofstra in a heated match on Sunday, including a wacky ending to the 3rd set. Hofstra thought they had won it 25-23, only to have the final point be overturned by a challenge, followed by two rather fortuitous consecutive aces to end the match. The quick turnaround left the Hofstra players totally stunned and many of them were visibly angry. It was the final nail in the coffin for a season that turned out to be a total calamity in Hempstead. Hofstra had the 3rd-most talented roster in the league this season. For them to not even make the tournament is a failure of epic proportions, the biggest of Emily Mansur's career. Excluding the anomalous COVID season, this will be the first time since 2011 that the Pride will not be in the CAA tournament. For such a strong program and group of players to go 14-2 the season prior and follow it up by immediately missing the tournament with a BETTER roster is nothing short of complete disaster. Emily Mansur is a great coach, but if this happened in the P5, or in a sport with more money involved, she would be fired. 

Hofstra's pain turned out to be Northeastern's gain, as they benefitted from the chaos to sneak into the tournament field, winning the tiebreaker over UNCW. Now, all the dust has settled and the bracket is set. It will play out like this:

Thursday, 11/16:

  • #4 CofC vs. #5 Stony Brook (Winner plays #1 Towson)
  • #3 Campbell vs. #6 Northeastern (Winner plays #2 Delaware)

The stage is set. Now it's time for the fun part!

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Both CAA losses this year to teams on the other side of the bracket who we could very likely see in the championship game, if we get there.  So a question for the great Vball guru here @tigerstigers, would you say that this team has really hit their stride in the 10 matches after getting swept at home in the 2nd Campbell game?  With the exception of the weekend at A&T, they've steamrolled the rest of the competition.  It would be great to wrap up a really successful fall season on the women's side with another NCAA bid.

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1 hour ago, Chris Datres said:

Both CAA losses this year to teams on the other side of the bracket who we could very likely see in the championship game, if we get there.  So a question for the great Vball guru here @tigerstigers, would you say that this team has really hit their stride in the 10 matches after getting swept at home in the 2nd Campbell game?  With the exception of the weekend at A&T, they've steamrolled the rest of the competition.  It would be great to wrap up a really successful fall season on the women's side with another NCAA bid.

Yes, I would say that. The tournament is the tournament, and anything can happen, no matter who you are. But this Towson team has clearly gotten better over the course of the season, mainly on the defensive side of the ball. Sydney Stewart has improved significantly in her first season as the starting libero, and the block does a great job of funneling attacks to our back row defenders. It is not surprising at all that this team leads the conference in hitting percentage, hitting almost .300 as a team (good for 7th in the nation). But it IS surprising that they also lead the conference in opponent hitting percentage (the best indicator of a team’s overall defensive strength), holding CAA opponents to just .154 hitting for the season. The shakiness and personnel uncertainty of nonconference is gone, and I really like the way this team has been playing the last month. 
 

One more note: The Tigers did lose one of their starting Middles, Erin Brothers, to an apparent knee injury during Saturday’s match against Northeastern. I can’t say for certain what the injury was, but it looked bad and she did not dress on Sunday. My guess is that she will miss the rest of the season. Brothers had been having a great Sophomore season, so it’s definitely an untimely and unfortunate injury for her. In her place, we got to see Junior Ylenia de Mango start for the first time this year on Sunday, and she did not look out of place at all. A tough injury, but definitely not an insurmountable one.

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With a 3-0 beatdown of Stony Brook, Towson advances to their fifth CAA title match in a row. CAA POTY Nina Cajic led the way with 14 kills on ridiculous efficiency, and the Tigers completely outclassed the Seawolves to head back to the big one. Delaware awaits after a 3-1 win over Campbell in the second semifinal. These have been the two best teams all year, and they split their two regular season meetings as well. It’ll be a fun one; if you’re in the area, head on over to SECU and catch this one live at 7pm ET!

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